Real Estate New York

Market Update March 2008

Capital Region Home Prices Buck Trend

A closely watched housing index says home prices in the Capital Region rose during the last quarter of 2007, even as they fell nationally.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Tuesday that prices of existing single-family homes here rose 1.22 percent during the year's final three months and 4.31 percent overall last year.

The numbers are a vindication of sorts for local real estate agents, who have insisted that the region's market is healthy relative to slumping areas in California, Florida and elsewhere.

"I'm sure there are a lot of communities that are different from the national numbers," said Marie Bettini, president of the Greater Capital Association of Realtors Inc., a Colonie-based trade group. "There are a lot of markets that are OK."

For months now, the Capital Region housing market has presented a paradox: According to numbers from GCAR, median sale prices have been flat or rising -- even as the number of homes sold were in steep decline.

On Monday, that trend continued: GCAR said January's closed home sales were down 20 percent from the same month last year, but the median sales price remained flat.

Because numbers like that seem to run counter to the laws of supply and demand, they've generated puzzlement -- and even skepticism.

Some cynics have wondered whether Realtors are cooking the books, or if buyers are using deflated prices to buy larger homes, thereby keeping prices stable.

But economists consider the OFHEO House Price Index to be among the most accurate of housing-price gauges because the agency bases its measurements on repeat sales of the same properties or refinancing on the same properties.

Click for complete article by Chris Churchill of the Times Union

Gradual home price drop good: Yale's Shiller

Robert Shiller, Yale finance professor and author of the highly touted "Irrational Exuberance" book on asset bubbles, said gradually falling home prices are nothing to fear.

It's the more swift and sharp slide that can undermine housing, and thus consumer confidence and the economy, he said here at a Reuters Housing Summit.

"There's nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices. If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing," Shiller said.

"On the other hand, if they fall suddenly and fast then that can bring on recession and that is the worry right now."

A housing boom that lasted nine years is now unraveling.

The economy is "probably on the brink of recession," Shiller said.

The most recent Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released in late January showed an annual 7.7 percent price drop in November.

Still, that slide pales in comparison with the surge registered in the nine years of the housing boom. 

Click for complete article by Lynn Adler of REUTERS.com

Stylish Outdoor Living

Decks and patios give a home and yard an attractive, functional outdoor space.

Home owners' increased interest in enjoying nature and gardening is reflected in patios and decks sprouting on the front, back, and sides of city and suburban homes, as well as atop roofs of condominium buildings and townhouses. These outdoor spaces reflect a greater array of designs, materials, sizes, and price points than constructed in years past.

“They're getting bigger and bigger and sometimes extend off the back and wrap around one side,” says Melissa Galt of Melissa Galt Interiors in Atlanta. Many also are designed as a transition between the indoors and a landscaped yard, says San Francisco architect Frank Bergmaschi.

Decks and patios also are getting swankier, the equivalent of outdoor rooms with sophisticated furnishings and all the bells and whistles. “Home owners want to take everything they love about their homes and move the whole lot outside,” says Michael Payne, a designer and former host of HGTV's show, “Designing for the Sexes.”

Here's how to get these outdoor spaces the attention they deserve:

Click for complete article by Barbara Ballinger of the National Association of Realtors

Architectural Coach: Radiant Heat

Heated floors for a cold day? To many buyers, that sounds too good to be true. Learn about the benefits of radiant heating and why it's becoming such a sought after amenity.

Radiant heating and cooling is growing in popularity in green design, new construction, and renovations as home owners discover the advantages of these features — not to mention, how they can pay off when they go to sell a home.

These systems, where embedded pipes circulate warm (or cool) water in the floors, are particularly energy efficient, which clearly is a big selling point. But there's more to radiant heating than just being fuel efficient.

Here are a few additional reasons a buyer will want to pay particular attention to this method of heating and cooling:

  • Radiant heat makes floors toasty and warm, which makes you feel cozier in the space. It eliminates drafty floors and provides consistent heat throughout a room.

  • There's no need for air ducts, which can circulate mold and dust throughout a house. For anyone suffering from allergies, this is an important consideration.

  • For ultra efficiency, renewable energy sources, such as geothermal and solar, are compatible for fueling a radiant heating and cooling system.

  • Radiant heating and cooling is quiet. Unlike other systems, there are no clanging radiator pipes or air rumbling through ductwork.

  • With other types of heating, the hot air rises quickly up toward the ceiling, warming the parts of a room where people rarely go. With radiant heat, the warmth stays lower in the room, closer to where you are.

  • Radiant heating and cooling doesn't interfere with furniture layouts or the choice of window treatments in a room the way that radiators, baseboard heating elements, and air vents do. You don't want to hang long curtains over an electric baseboard heater, place a sofa against a radiator or over an air vent, or have a chair right in front of a through-the-wall air conditioner. With radiant heating and cooling, there is nothing visible in the room; it's all buried in the floor.

  • The energy efficiency of radiant heating and cooling can save 20 percent or more on fuel bills. This is, in part, because the water being circulated through the pipes doesn't need to be heated to as high a temperature as a traditional radiator, for example.

Click for complete article by Leslie Banker of the National Association of Realtors __________________________________________________

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Another Sub-Prime Bail-Out Plan

Mortgage Bail-OutSpeaking ominously about the status of the "American dream of homeownership," a pair of Democratic state legislators unveiled a mortgage relief bill Tuesday to tamper the effects of a growing national housing crisis.

State Sen. Bob Duff, D-25, majority whip, and state Rep. Ryan Barry, D-Manchester, co-chairmen of the Banks Committee, presented the bill with the support of Senate President Pro Tem Donald Williams, D-Brooklyn, and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.

This is just the latest in plans to be unveiled in a rare bipartisan approach to the situation that has burst the real estate bubble in many places in the county.

Whatever plan is eventually adopted both Democrats and Republicans seem committed to removing the Sub-Prime blot on the real estate market which has done much to uphold the U.S. economy for over forty years.

Click for complete article By Max Hadler of the Stamford Times

Foreclosures Down in New York State in January

While other areas of the country experience major increases in January foreclosure rates (Texas, California, Florida up 7%, 120% from January 2007) New York State has had a 5 1/4% decrease in foreclosures.

Once again the stability of our local real estate market bucks the trend with only inner city areas of Troy and Schenectady experiencing any significant levels of foreclosures. These areas are typically the territory of highly leveraged absentee owners and speculators who have often exposed themselves to high risk mortgage instruments.

Click for complete report by RealtyTrac.com

Market Update

Market Statistics as of March 1, 2008

This graph represents average sale versus list prices

February* stats show a slight downturn in the average selling prices while the average asking price increased slightly while the difference between what sellers are asking and what the buyers are paying dropped to 96.50%

However, both the average sale price and list prices are near their 2007 averages for the same period with sales declining from 346 in January 2008 to 255 for February 2008.

It is worth noting that the accuracy of the data that has been presented here has been confirmed by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight as presented in our lead story: Capital Region Home Prices Buck Trend In addition, the conclusion that the average home price is being supported by continued sales of high end homes was first noted here in the October 2007 Market Update This is not so much a vindication of our market expertise here at Real Estate New York but a validation of our method of up-to-the-minute real-time statistical analysis we gather directly from the MLS on a daily basis. For both buyers and sellers this means that the information contained here is what is happening in the market today and not last year.

*February 29th has been disregarded for equal comparison to earlier years of 28 days

Mortgage Rates and Trends

The link to up to the minute New York State mortgage information seems to work better than presenting the actual graph.

Click for up to the minute mortgage rate information

Buyers' versus Sellers' Market Report

The graph above shows the number of sales in a given month divided by the number of homes on the market in the four main counties of the Capital Region. And once again the upper limits of the Buyers' Market had to be extended upwards indicating an even stronger buyer's market than experienced before*.

As you can see, in October we were in a balanced market. As of December 1, the market turned back toward favoring the buyer. This upturn in buyer fortunes continues unchanged as of February 1, 2008

*This ratio can be used to determine whether we are in a buyers' or sellers' market as indicated in Dennis Maier's article on Market Timing featured in eZine Real Estate. In general, if it would (theoretically) take less than 6 1/2 months to sell the current inventory it's a sellers' market. If it would take more than 9 months to sell all the homes on the market it's a buyers' market.

Stimulus Package To Give Market a Boost

In this special video edition of the NAR President's Podcast, 2008 National Association of Realtors President Dick Gaylord explains how the economic stimulus package will give housing a big boost, and why we need to pass FHA and GSE Reform now.

Click for complete podcast and white paper from Dick Gaylord

Archives

http://RENY.netWe've been asked to again include links to past market updates. But since our stories link to other web sites over which we have no control we only want to link to our most recent issues. Otherwise, the article links may fail to work as they once did.

in addition (also by request) a permanent link to past Market Updates has been added to the home page of RENY.net

 

Location Location Location

As increased listing inventories present more choices for the Capital Region home buyer there is a need to eliminate properties without the bother of a drive-by. And while detailed listings with multiple pictures and visual tours are essential, the surrounding neighborhood is often a blank. Now Google has developed an amazing way to explore the street view of a prospective listing online. Just enter the address at Google Maps and see not only the satellite, topographical, and map view but a real photo of the street that can be panned and zoomed in any direction. Just enter the address.



View Larger Map

Of course, the images are not great and tend to give, in our opinion, a gloomy look to the street scene.

We hope you have enjoyed this month's Market Update. If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions on topics you would like to see covered please email them to Dennis J. Maier Principal Realtor Broker Real Estate New York at DennisM@RENY.net