Real Estate New York

Market Update January 2008

Feds Look to End Credit Crunch

Ben Bernanke and the Fed join up with other central banks to help beleaguered financial institutions borrow more easily.


By Paul R. La Monica CNNMoney.com editor at large

The central bank plans to hold four special auctions between Dec. 17 and Jan. 28 to allow banks to bid for the right to borrow money directly from the Fed. The first two auctions will be for up to $20 billion each. The amounts of the third and fourth will be determined in January, the Fed said in a statement.

The Fed is giving beleaguered banks the opportunity to access funds without having to borrow money directly from the Fed at the usual short-term discount rate, which stands at 4.75 percent.

The Fed added that it was coordinating with the Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank on the auction process in order to "address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets."

The other central banks will hold auctions similar to the Fed's. The Fed also set up foreign exchange swaps to allow the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank to make loans in dollars instead of their much stronger currencies. The hope is that this will lead to lower interest rates abroad.

"This was a global effort among a number of central banks. We wanted to announce that together. We couldn't announce that yesterday as Europe was closed," the Fed official said.

Click for complete article

Feds Urged to Cut Rates Again

FORMER US Treasury Secretary John Snow has called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again to offset the housing slump and indirectly slammed Goldman Sachs for the "duplicitous" short-selling of mortgage backed securities.

"The Fed has responded with a series of measured policy actions, but more will still need to be done to avoid a steep downturn, despite the most recent inflation reports,'' Mr Snow, now chairman of Cerberus Capital Management LLP, wrote in an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal.

The US central bank has slashed interest rates by a full percentage point, to 4.25 per cent, since September. Its next scheduled policy meeting is Jan. 29-30.

The Fed has been pushed to act by the US housing crisis, which spilled into a global credit crunch in August. Tighter lending standards and falling house prices could undermine US consumer spending and badly sap growth.

Mr Snow outlined other action that would help buffer the ailing economy, including the speedy recognition of banking losses, followed by recapitalisation and the takeover of weakened financial firms by their stronger rivals.

He also argued that banks should be required to "stay on the hook''  for their home loans by making them keep a portion of the debt on their balance sheets, rather than distributing it to other investors via securitisation.

This would encourage banks to be more careful in writing loans in the first place.

"It would also help avoid the duplicitous behavior of publicly marketing an asset-based security to customers, while privately betting it will fall in value,'' said Mr Snow.

Click for complete article

Be Ready When the Time Comes

The current credit crunch and price decline presents a once in a lifetime opportunity for the savvy home buyer

But now, more than ever, future home owners need to have their financial house in order to take advantage of upcoming bargains in the Capital Region real estate market.

A realistic budget that includes all of your monthly expenses is the first step to a stronger financial footing. As you create your budget for the year ahead, be on the lookout for areas where you can easily save money — you'll find that every little thing counts.

For help on your path to budgeting success, read these savings tips and download this budget worksheet from Buffini & Co., a Carlsbad, Calif., coaching organization.

7 Savings Tips

  • Take note of extra income. If you receive regular income from other sources — such as referrals, teaching, or broker price opinions — add line items so can track these income sources and grow them. For example, realizing you've earned $4,000 by teaching a homeownership course at a local college may encourage you to look for additional teaching opportunities.

  • Make smart car decisions. Use online calculators at sites such as LeaseGuide.com or Bankrate.com to determine if it's more cost-effective to own or lease a car. Hint: In a lease, car price is the most negotiable item.

  • Buy in bulk. Many vendors offer a discount for buying in bulk. If you find a closing gift you like, buy all your closing gifts for the year at once to save money, as well as the time for last-minute shopping trips.

  • Change the bulbs! This is an easy one. Reduce your energy costs at home and at work (if you rent space) by using compact fluorescent light bulbs. Each CFL bulb will save you $30 over the life of the bulb, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

  • Factor in depreciation at tax time. Based on IRS calculations, most computers and office equipment should be depreciated over a five-year period. However, office furniture is depreciated over seven years.

  • Rethink your insurance deductibles. If you have a $250 or even $500 auto deductible but haven't made a claim in several years, you'll probably save money by raising your deductible.

  • Stow away money for retirement. If you earn less than $110,000, or you and your spouse earn less than $160,000 annually, you can contribute to a Roth IRA. For the 2007 tax year, each spouse under 49 can contribute $4,000; spouses 50 or over can contribute $5,000

Click for more budgeting tips from the National Association of Realtors

Architectural Coach: Shed Homes

A subset of the Modern style, including (insert links) Shed homes were particular favorites of architects in the 1960s and 1970s. They feature multiple roofs sloping in different directions, which creates multigeometric shapes; wood shingle, board, or brick exterior cladding; recessed and downplayed front doorways; and small windows. There's virtually no symmetry to the style.


Click for Complete Article from Realtor.org

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How Predictions Got Housing Wrong

Experts thought 2007 would bring a real estate recovery - not the worst collapse on record. What does that say about forecasts of a turnaround next year?

Current predictions range from a .3% increase from the National Association of Realtors (typically optimistic but also often accurate) to as much as a 14% decline as predicted by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures index futures contracts

What this tells us is that no one really knows.

In addition, real estate is a local phenomenon with the Capital Region historically immune to cataclysmic drops and meteoric rises seen in other areas of the country. This a result of our solid underlying economic fundamentals such as stable employment, manageable municipal debt, and adequate infrastructure.

Given that our present decline in national prices is due largely to an anomaly--Sub Prime Lending Abuse--the correction of this issue by intervention of government and private institutions should clear the way to an eventual recovery of home prices.

Regrettably, for anyone who must sell their home in the coming months the recovery may come too late to insure an appropriate return on their housing investment.

For home buyers, however, the present crisis presents an excellent opportunity to own a better home than may have been available only a few months before. Finally, home buyers are getting a break. But when to act?

To this end, Market Update from Real Estate New York provides the statistical information needed to time the bottom of our local market and mark the initial upturns.
It is up to the individual buyer to decide when in the cycle to act. For instance, if the home is to be held for a number of years precise timing of the exact bottom market is not needed, as the up swing will encompass market appreciation nearly as well. If, on the other hand, a home is to be held only a year or two, careful market timing is essential.

Click for complete article By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Fed Plans to Tighten U.S. Mortgage Rules After Crisis

The Federal Reserve proposed new rules for subprime mortgages, including a ban on low- documentation loans and limits on penalties for borrowers who prepay their debts.

The plans, the Fed's biggest regulatory initiative since Chairman Ben S. Bernanke took office in February 2006, are aimed at curbing lending practices that contributed to record foreclosures. Board members unanimously voted in a hearing today to make lenders responsible for determining whether borrowers can afford their mortgages even after low starter rates expire.

``Mortgage-market discipline has in some cases broken down and the incentives to follow prudent lending procedures have, at times, eroded,'' Bernanke said at the meeting. The proposed new rules ``were carefully crafted'' to deter ``improper lending'' without ``unduly restricting mortgage credit availability,'' he said.

Click for complete article By Craig Torres and Alison Vekshin of Bloomberg.com

Market Update

Market Statistics as of January 1, 2007

This graph represents average sale versus list prices

December stats again show an upturn in the average list and selling prices. In addition, the difference between what sellers are asking and what the buyers are paying has increased to 97.25%

In addition, both the average sale price and list prices are still above both 2005 and 2006 average sale and list prices though the number of sales continues to decline to 464 for the month.

Mortgage Rates and Trends

The link to up to the minute New York State mortgage information seems to work better than presenting the actual graph.

Click for up to the minute mortgage rate information

Buyers' versus Sellers' Market Report

The graph above shows the number of sales in a given month divided by the number of homes on the market in the four main counties of the Capital Region. This ratio can be used to determine whether we are in a buyers' or sellers' market as indicated in Dennis Maier's article on Market Timing featured in eZine Real Estate. In general, if it would (theoretically) take less than 6 1/2 months to sell the current inventory it's a sellers' market. If it would take more than 9 months to sell all the homes on the market it's a buyers' market.
As you can see, in November we were in a balanced market. As of December 1, the market turned back toward favoring the buyer. This continues unchanged as of January 1, 2008

Archives

We've been asked to again include links to past market updates. But since our stories link to other web sites over which we have no control we only want to link to our most recent issues. Otherwise, the article links may fail to work as they once did.

in addition (also by request) a permanent link to past Market Updates has been added to the home page of RENY.net

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We hope you have enjoyed this month's Market Update. If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions on topics you would like to see covered please email them to Dennis J. Maier Principal Realtor Broker Real Estate New York at DennisM@RENY.net